Progressive Bet Sizing for Poker Greatness

In the game of poker, small things can make a huge difference.

Whether it’s finding a table with a slightly lower rake, or playing two or three fewer hands per hour, or even which seat you take at the table relative to stronger or weaker opponents, these micro-adjustments can make the difference between a losing session and a winning one… or, more optimistically, between a modest win and a massive take.

This is the principle behind progressive bet sizing.

Most students of the game of poker already know the power of many of these small-but-decisive strategic points.

Whether it’s something as straightforward as playing more aggressively when in later position, or the tactical choice to actively go after weaker players rather than going toe-to-toe with stronger ones, or even something as modern as identifying and beating AI opponents, these adjustments can make all the difference when it comes time to cash out!

Yet for all of that, progressive bet sizing is still somewhat poorly understood. So what is it, really, and why is it so important?

Here’s what every would-be champion needs to know!

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What Is Progressive Bet Sizing?

Simply put, progressive bet sizing means choosing the size of one’s early bets so as to make the end pot exactly the size you want it to be.

To put it more elegantly, you could say that progressive bet sizing is all about how bet sizes influence pot sizes.

The ‘progressive’ element comes from the understanding that, as the pot grows during successive rounds of betting (pre-flop and post-flop, for those still learning the lingo), later betting rounds (the turn and river) almost always get bigger and bigger.

Most players know this intuitively. After all, it’s no coincidence that the biggest and most dramatic hands tend to happen after the turn and river cards are revealed! It’s the poker equivalent of the bottom of the 9th inning of a baseball game – it’s where the action happens!

And that drama – as well as the big wins that come along with it – is a big part of why the game of poker continues as a renewed interest of gamblers all over the world!

What most players don’t understand is just how quickly the pot grows. And even more than that, even though the really big bets tend to get placed on the river, the river bet is heavily influenced by the size of bets in earlier rounds.

Getting a grasp on these concepts is the key to it all!

OK, but Why Is This So Important?

In short: progressive bet sizing matters because the pot grows quicker than you think.

The more money is sitting there in the middle of the table, ripe for the taking, the more likely that a) aggressive players will try to make a play to steal the pot and b) ive players will be more likely to call big bets to get a chance to win it all!

Imagine, for example, that you hold the nuts throughout all betting rounds – imagine pocket aces that trip up not he flop, with no pairs on the board, and no straights or flushes possible. Obviously, the goal is to win as much money as possible! But how?

Imagine that you are playing with $1 and $2 blinds, that you simply bet the size of the pot on every round after the flop, and one opponent calls you down. Here’s what the different final pot sizes will be with different initial bets:

Preflop raise of twice the big blind (2BB), or $4.

– Pre-flop: $3 from the blinds, $4 from you, $4 from your opponent = $11

– Flop: $11 already in the pot, $11 from you, $11 from your opponent = $33

– Turn: $33 already in the pot, $33 from you, $33 from your opponent = $99

– River: $99 already in the pot, $99 from you, $99 from your opponent = $297 (final pot size < 150BB)

What about with a pre-flop raise of 3BB?

– Pre-flop: $3 from the blinds, $6 from you, $6 from your opponent = $15

– Flop: $15 already in the pot, $15 from you, $15 from your opponent = $45

– Turn: $45 already in the pot, $45 from you, $45 from your opponent = $135

– River: $135 already in the pot, $135 from you, $135 from your opponent = $405 (final pot size > 200BB)

Quite a difference! What about a 4BB opening raise?

– Pre-flop: $3 from the blinds, $8 from you, $8 from your opponent = $19

– Flop: $19 already in the pot, $19 from you, $19 from your opponent = $57

– Turn: $57 already in the pot, $57 from you, $57 from your opponent = $171

– River: $171 already in the pot, $171 from you, $171 from your opponent = $513 (final pot size > 250BB)

How about that? You win more than $100 with each increase of 1BB in pre-flop raise! Not a bad return on a measly $2 bump in your opening raise.

Of course, this is an oversimplification – even the most basically-inclined players won’t just be the pot every time, and even the most ive opponents won’t simply call you every time just like that.

In practice, the river is where the truly big bets tend to get laid out – and called. That’s why they call it the heartbreaker!

But if you’re trying to get the most out of an opponent (spoiler alert: you should be), you should know that he or she will be much more likely to call a big bet when there’s already a lot of money at stake!

In the above example, in which of the three examples above do you think an adversary is most likely to call a bet of $171?

Making the Opponent Sweat

As a rule of thumb, if you’re trying to get all of your opponent’s chips, aim to get about 1/3 of his or her stack in the middle of the table by the end of the second round of betting.

Keeping the original example (in which you hold the nuts), suppose your opponent has $100 in chips in front of them. This would mean that your goal would be to get approximately $33 of their money into the pot before the turn card comes out. If you succeed, there will be at least $66 in the pot ($33 from two of you), and he or she will be left with $67 dollars in chips in front of them.

This gives them pretty solid pot odds to justify an all-in call, or something close to it!

Theoretically, it doesn’t make a lick of difference whether you get them to contribute $5 pre-flop and $27 before the turn, or $10 and $23, or $1 and $32!

But from a perspective of sizing up your bets progressively, and for that matter of giving your opponent decent enough pot-odds to justify a call, the $10/$23 is probably best.

With all of this in mind, our quick tip is to raise to 4BB preflop rather than 3BB or 2BB… if you want to play for 100BB stacks, that is!